一、主题：Priming and Stock Preferences: Evidence from IPO Lotteries
二、主讲人：胡聪慧，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院副教授，北京大学光华管理学院金融学博士。曾任对外经济贸易大学国际商学院副教授、美国哥伦比亚大学商学院访问学者。研究领域为行为金融、资本市场与公司财务，致力于从投资者行为偏误、市场摩擦等非基本面因素的角度理解资产价格和公司财务政策。近年来，在Journal of Corporate Finance、Journal of Financial Markets、Journal of Banking and Finance、《管理世界》、《金融研究》、《会计研究》、《经济学(季刊)》等国内外期刊上发表论文十余篇。
Abstract: Existing studies in social psychology have found that priming has pervasive effects, mostly in laboratory settings and over short periods of time. This study investigates the priming effect in the real financial world and over longer periods of time. We hypothesize that successful lottery-like experiences raise investors’ subsequent demand for other lottery-like stocks by increasing the accessibility of tail events. By exploiting the randomized distribution of IPO shares in China as a natural experiment, we find that, compared with matched control investors, the investors who were allocated IPO shares (lottery winners) substantially shift their non-IPO portfolios toward lottery-like stocks over the three months subsequent to the distribution. This effect is more pronounced for investors winning IPO lotteries with lower winning rates or larger issue-price discounts. Moreover, lottery winners experience a decrease in their overall portfolio return by more than 1% within the three months subsequent to the distribution relative to matched control investors, which is largely in proportion to the increases in their subsequent demand for lottery-like stocks. Our findings are not explained by the house money effect or the wealth effect. Overall, our study suggests that lottery-like cues play a critical role in shaping investors’ gambling preferences in stock markets, providing field-based evidence for the long-term priming effect.